Monday, September 19, 2005

Wow. For the first time in years, I guess, I've read a Zerkalo Nedeli text by Yulia Mostovaya (in Russian) from the beginning to the very end - and even enjoyed it. Usually, I give up well before I'm halfway through.

Here're a few selections:


Not many will be strong enough now to try to figure out the situation, instead of just turning around and leaving, disappointed. No one said it'd be easy, democracy in a developing country. The thing is, in Ukraine, democracy is only partially visible, covered by sovok, and it resembles not the new skin but erosive spots. We've obtained the right to know but haven't yet found the ability to understand what to do with this knowledge; except the elections, we haven't yet discovered other legitimate ways in which society can influence the government; we haven't found people with moral authority in our ranks, people capable of finishing the unfinished business; we still do not believe that the judicial and law enforcement systems [...] can be trusted. In other words, the society now has the right to receive information that can make it boil - but it does not have a chance to take the lid off and let the steam out.


Today, a larger segment of society is on Tymoshenko's side; however, neither Yulia Vladimirovna, nor her team should rely on this too much, because mutual accusations, truthful and not, that are likely to dominate the next seven months of the election campaign, will erase the difference between those who are right and those who are wrong.


The continuation of the war may lead to this: for Maidan's anniversary, which Victor Andreevich has decided to declare a state holiday, only a few dozen people would come to the Independence Square, drink silently, without toasting, and then leave. If nothing changes, those who voted for a Victor Yushchenko-Yulia Tymoshenko tandem, would secure an extremely low turnout at the upcoming parliamentary election. At the same time, supporters of Victor Yanukovych and the communists would show up in an organized, monolith, way. And the neo-Kuchmist Lytvyn's People's bloc would attract many. As a result, the forces that discredited themselves yesterday would overcome those that have discredited themselves today. If in the remaining time of the campaign nothing but the intensity changes, if the essence of the struggle and of the priorities remains the same - such a result is inevitable.


It's necessary to start looking for a way out right away. And there are only the existing political forces to choose from. The thing is, the Ukrainian voter is facing this strategic - not tactical - obstacle: he (the voter) has to deal with the already very familiar political forces, and there's neither the basis nor the time for emergence of the radically different ones. The future parliament can only differ from the current one in its configurations, but, in its human material, it'll be a twin of today's parliament.


In case of the early presidential election - an option that is already being discussed - the country would have to choose from the same familiar faces, whose pluses and, what's more important, minuses, are very well known to us. And this means that, regardless of the outcome of this political crisis, in the next year or two, Ukraine is not going to have a government of a different quality, since the material it will be made of is the same as that used for the current government, and for the previous one. It's just that in the process of a long-term sewing and crafting and under the pressure of internal and external factors, Ukraine may if not lose its sovereignty, then definitely find itself far below the level set by the society during the Orange Revolution. And it's important to look for a way out of the crisis relying on the existing political elites and not hoping for the arrival of some new, uncorrupt political force.


...the first step now should be a ceasefire and the beginning of talks, because the self-destructive war we are witnessing is capable of destroying not just the politicians taking part in it, but also the belief of the majority of the population that democracy is worth it, as well as the world community's faith in the potential of a democratic Ukraine.

1 comment:

  1. It all depends on the terms of the alliances. Politics always makes for odd bedfellows and partnering with old foes may boomerang against Yusch.

    I don't think the OR was so much about Yusch but for a change in the rules of the game. It is not clear that there is a reversion to the old ways. There certainly seems to be the onset of some significant political competition.

    We will see if this competition is channeled in more productive ways and force Yusch to get off his toosch and get some needed changes made.


    09.20.05 - 4:49 am