Monday, March 27, 2006

50.50% counted, here's the breakdown:

Party of Regions - 27.34%
Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc - 23.52%
Our Ukraine Bloc - 16.27%
Socialist Party - 6.89%
Communist Party - 3.53%
Lytvyn's Bloc - 2.63%
Kostenko+Plyushch - 2.33%
Vitrenko - 2.27%
Pora-PRP - 1.47%

In Kyiv, only 17.48% of the votes have been counted - most likely because the mayor's race is considered the priority now, despite a law that says that the parliamentary votes have to be dealt with first of all.

10 comments:

  1. OK -- if Yulia and Viktor get together they'll have 40% between them if these results continue to hold. Looks like Yush and Yulia polled a big higher than pre-election polls would have it. Their split up may have not been such a bad idea -- a bad cop, good cop routine that garnered more votes than running together -- that way Yush gets a lot of voters who are disillusioned with the lack of progress on reforms and Yulia gets the bloc who like what she was doing. I still think they will work together -- politics makes strange bedfellows. Thanks for the great election coverage -- I've linked you up at Ultima Thule and will be sending more traffic your way for continued updates.

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  2. Careful Neeka! Those numbers are really off because if you look at the breakdown by regions, the eastern regions are lagging a consistent 20% in terms of having all their votes counted. That means RoU may be poised for 35%+ and Vitrenko has a good chance of getting in.

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  3. Dan, I'm using info from Central Election Commission site. It's interesting to record these preliminary results - because regardless of what the current five leaders end up with, right now their reactions are based on these figures. If the numbers change dramatically, it'd be interesting to see how their responses change, etc... There're my reactions and expectations, too, of course: seeing that Kyiv hasn't been counted yet gives hope, for example, because, who knows, maybe the remaining ballots are all for Pora-PRP!.. :)

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  4. I think Yanu is getting slightly less than expected. I think one exit poll put him at 34%. I think he will get about 30%, which is somewhere in between the two pre-election polls, but well below the exit polling. My predictions:

    Yanu 30%
    Yul 22%
    Yush 15%
    Soc 6%
    Comm 4%
    Vitrenko 3% +/- .1 (50% chance of getting in).

    Therefore if Vitrenko does not get in, seats are:

    Yanu 39%
    Yul 28.5%
    Yush 19.5%
    Soc 8%
    Comm 5%

    So the Socs are the king makers, as expected.

    If Vitrenko gets in:

    Yanu 37.5
    Yul 27.5
    Yush 18.8%
    Soc 7.5%
    Comm 5%
    Vitrenko 3.8%

    The coalition of Yul, Yush, Soc is now down to 54% of the seats.

    nona

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  5. It should be noted that if Pora and the Greens and one or two other parties had given their vote to Yul/Yush, then Yul+Yush could have formed a coalition majority government WITHOUT the help of the Socialists.

    nona

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  6. Interesting how this all works. So basically with this system, the Socialists (who are being predicted to win perhaps 6% of the vote) are in the drivers seat as far as who they want to throw their weight behind in forming a new government.

    Makes me glad for a two-party system.

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  7. The system's screwed up, and a natural reaction is to look past it at the practical results - which aren't too impressive, unfortunately.

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  8. Vernoica, - I would not blame the system. The system is actually pretty decent and fair. The 3% threshold is about right. Most importantly, the proportional representation is exactly how it should be. The new constitutional amendments transferring more power to the Prime Minister is exactly right. Yushchenko should be given credit for that. He is a true statesman to agree to reducing his own powers. He knew that was better for Ukraine and gracefully accepted it.

    The problem are these idealist youth with lesser political consciousness who think that it is more important to save some trees (the Greens) and engineer idealistic societies (Pora), and they ended up throwing their votes away, and helping the Party of Regions gain more seats.

    There is nothing wrong with the system (as far as I can tell without knowing too much of the details). The enemy is us.

    nona

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  9. Looks like I was a bit optimistic. Here is my forecast based on 61.85% counts.

    Yanu 31%
    Yul 21%
    Yush 15%
    Soc 6%
    Comm 4%
    Vitrenko 3% and gets in.

    Yul+Yanu+Soc will have only 52% of the seats.

    The country will be divided East-West big time.

    nona

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  10. nona,

    52% is about the same that Yusch got on the presidential election. Even slightly bigger. I don't see how he gets more with current state of things. If you sum up all the orange votes at 63.08% you get even less than 52. So the split is about the same as it was during the presidential election.

    This country wasn't, isn't and won't be divided East-West. because Chernigiv, Poltava and Sumy are neither West nor Center of the country. This division is more accurately described as division by the borders of Kievan Rus. even Malorossia+Galychyna vs. Novorossia seems closer. You may also call it the division at where ukrainians live and where non-ukrainians live. Not in ethnical sense of course.

    As a voter of Pora I don't care if part of my vote goes to Yanyk. This country is divided. Since Yusch did not let them go during the revolution, did not grant autonomy to this Novorossia or PiSUAR thing, the only I guess remaining way to form a new ukrainian nation that will include people of Donetsk or Odessa is to dogovoritsa with them. If coalition between NU and RoU is needed so let it be. Even though this RoU consist of and is headed by thieves and former and future criminals - so let it be. Almost half of my fellow citizens voted freely for thieves and criminals being fully aware of that. We did not let them form their own state or joint their beloved Russia, now we have to live with them. So our children won't use terms "us" and "them".

    I see two main reasons of Pora-PRP's (and Klitchko) defeat. First is the campaign. Their maxim percentage might be 6-8 of young self-reliable center-right liberals disappointed with the leaders of the revolution, not the revolution itself. The thing that only by announcing themselves running for the Rada they got 1.8% rating within a week was a sign of a very good potential. Their campaign unfortunately was done like they are aiming at least 15% of very wide range of voters. Use of "TAK!" and even orange was a mistake because it was same as saying "there's no difference between us and NU so why vote for us". I'm not even sure if they needed Klitchko. The second problem was the lines at the polling stations. While standing there, I've seen a lot of "young self-reliable center-right liberals" leaving because of these lines. The only line most of them could bare to stand is the line at the passport control in Boryspil.

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