Sunday, March 26, 2006

National exit poll results suck.

6 pm
18,000 people
margin of error 0,5-3,2%

Party of Regions - 33,3%
Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc - 22,7%
Our Ukraine Bloc - 13,5%
Socialist Party - 5,3%
Communist Party - 3,5%
Vitrenko's Bloc - 3,4%
Lytvyn's Bloc - 2,7%

Update: The two other exit polls also suck, though slightly less... (Note to the anonymous commenter: I hope you're not relying on me too much for this info. If you do, please don't.)


6 pm
40,000 people
margin of error 0,5%

Party of Regions - 31,4%
Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc - 22,9%
Our Ukraine Bloc - 17%
Socialist Party - 6,9%
Communist Party - 3,9%
Vitrenko's Bloc - 2,9%
Lytvyn's Bloc - 2,5%

All-Ukrainian Sociological Service:

22,500 people

Party of Regions - 27,5%
Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc - 21,6%
Our Ukraine Bloc - 15,6%
Socialist Party - 5,5%
Lytvyn's Bloc - 5,1%
Communist Party - 4,7%
Vitrenko's Bloc - 3,2%
Pora-PRP - 2,7%


  1. How about the other two exit polls? Which one is the most reliable?

  2. the final results will show which one was closest to the truth...

  3. Well, it is obvious that Yush and Yulia have to settle their differences. Like a man and a wife, they have to go and seek mediation (EU and US consultation).

    What the polls show is that populism is alive, even in Ukraine. People vote by their guts, and not by their brains. If Yanu gets 30% or more, it would be impossible to stop him.

    Why did Yush get 6% below the poll forecasts? If the economy is strong, then he is either a lousy campaigner, or there is something else wrong.

  4. There's one good thing about these elections: only parties with a "true" position got through. None of them is some kind of a project or some "patriot-third-force-liberal-
    nationalist-middle-class" kind of bullshit. We all know what these parties stand for. And when the commies die out,
    it'll be even clearer.

  5. Veronica, I sent you an sms this morning, but apparently you didn't get it... Since we produce a weekly show about alliens and prophets, we asked one very good clairvoyant about Pora-PRP's chances. He said they wouldn't pass. I voted for them for the city council, but for the Rada I went for Nasha U.

  6. I think Yulia will take the Premiership with Yanukovych providing strong opposition. As outlined on my own blog I feel the possibility for the coalition to fall apart as in 2004 remains.

  7. Sasha, you are talking in code. Are you saying that Pora is not a "true" party?

    Any party that does not have its feet firmly planted in economics and only gives lip service to human rights, or is more interested in "power" because they have their own utopian dreams to execute that needs power and elimination of dissenters - then they would not be a true party IMO.

    Are you saying Pora is one of these?


  8. No, this isn't what Sasha's saying. He wanted to vote for Pora-PRP, but - like many others - he didn't, because they weren't expected to pass the 3% barrier.

  9. I was trying to find these parties political programs (not just speeches), to actually know what they intend to do on an economic level.

    But the discourse seems to revolve too much around being Pro-Russia, or Pro-Western, even if not admittedly.

    I mean, personally i think either positions are irrelevant if not with a Pro-Ukraine stance on top of it all.

    What is their Economic project?

    1. Service-based/Import Oriented "English" style of economy?


    2. Industry-based/Export oriented "Japanese/Korean" style of economy?

    I get perplexed how, systematically people seem to pretend that Japan and Korea don't exist (from a Political-Economic perspective). Since we're talking about 2 Democracies where people are rather well off, and enjoy all those rights people seem to speak about so much. (not worse than anyone in Western Europe imho (and probably much better in Japan's case))

    Then again, if one reads about the Korean economic miracle, such miracle was achieved by
    Park Chung Hee, a dictator who got killed by his own secret services.
    (perhaps this will happen in Belarus, i imagine 100% of people reading this board would be immensely sad)

    What Ukraine needs (IF the Objective is an economically powerful Ukraine in 20-30 years time that is), is nationalist thinking, renew Industry (so many scientists and inteligent people in Ukraine, Koreans started off much worse, with virtually no Industrial base to begin with)

    At first, i naively thought Tymoshenko was this, a person who dresses with style and who understands economy. But HER economy is the "english" one, i think. This economy will bring little success, the "industrial" one is so much better.

    All of this seems so obvious for someone who pays minimal attention to the world, but somehow there's this "Western" obsession, of wanting to be "Western" paying attention to what "Western" says in the Present, and forgetting what "Western" said in the past when they were building what they have now.

    Wish i could "explain" this to the democratically elected people who run my country for the past 30 years. Wish i was President (Or PM , in this case). :)

    Ah, and.. the idea of the developed West sometimes make me laugh, burning cars and small shops of fellow citizens, throwing metal gratings at police, doesn't seem civilized at all. From a Human perspective, i think Ukraine is light-years ahead of France.

    P.S.- Yes, i know, all of this is boring stuff. But hey, at least i actually want that life gets better for everyone, over there in Ukraine. It would even be cool when/if Ukraine joins the EU, and
    there's less airtime for germans/french/english, they are just so boring.


    P.S. nº2 - ah yes, all of this, as usual, Just my opinion.